Week 7 Thoughts on the Weekend

- What a weekend! I know I know, we say that far too often. After awhile making such statements can make a sort rather hollow. But we feel this was well deserving of it. And what better time for it than the end of the regular season beginning, and as well as the playoffs coming up.

- South Portland didn’t need to race out to a blazing start against Kennebunk on Friday. Instead they were methodical and took advantage of situations as they came in their 27-6 victory over the Rams. It was 3 Kennebunk turnovers that made it difficult for them to keep pace or catch up with the Red Riots. In the final play of the first half, a pitch by Rams quarterback Gray Compton missed its intended recipient and South Portland’s Alex Dobson dove onto the loose ball for the recovery and the end of the scoring opportunity. A third quarter interception by Connor Gerard likely stopped a Kennebunk scoring opportunity as they were deep in South Portland territory on what would be their final drive. A Matthew Frey interception in the fourth quarter, combined with him scoring a goal line score shortly afterwards, led to the final score of the game. Kennebunk continues to hold onto first place in Southern Class B. South Portland’s win keeps them competitive in a very tight Southern Class A playoff chase.

- Southern Class A will be quite the race to the very end. With Bonny Eagle, Noble, and South Portland winning on Friday, it is creating a packed fielded. Noble maintains its edge on second place. Behind the Knights, a little less than 8 Crabtree points separate Sanford, Bonny Eagle, and South Portland. With only the top four making the playoffs, everyone will want to avoid being in that five-spot come two weeks from now.

- In a battle of 4-2 teams, the Battle of the Berwicks (as we have previously called it) between Marshwood and Noble was for period of time recently dominated by Marshwood. Since Noble’s last win in 2010 (a 25-20 victory), Marshwood has been the victor in the previous four contests (Being split between Class A and B and seasons where the game was not scheduled is part of the absence of more contests). Noble’s 20-7 halftime lead disappeared after a Hawks rally behind two Cole Goodwin rushing touchdowns in the third quarter. Noble immediately responded on the following drive, helped by three Marshwood penalties, led to a Tommy Gagnon 17-yard touchdown run that put Noble back in the lead. And then the game was put out of reach in the fourth quarter after Noble overcome a second and 37 to get a 9-yard Jamier Rose touchdown run for the final score of 33-20.

- After three close contests at the start of the season, Gorham’s 20-0 win over Deering puts them on their first two-game winning streak since the beginning of the 2019 season. Gorham’s night started off very well when Aidan Lee returned the opening kickoff 78 yards for a touchdown. Garrett Poulin would score twice in the second quarter that gave them a 20-0 lead. While Deering was able to get yards on the ground, they finished with 134 rushing yards, it was three fumbles that no doubt limited their chances to turn drives into touchdowns. Gorham’s win moves them within 5 Crabtree points of fifth place Westbrook, who lost on Saturday. Deering’s loss, combined with Massabesic’s 56-32 win at Biddeford, dropped the Rams into fourth place below the Mustangs with a gap of only 2 Crabtree points.

- After the euphoria of the 2022 season for Skowhegan, the 2023 season has been a series of struggles. The River Hawks came into Friday with a 1-4 record and were sixth in Northern Class B. Looking for a victory to build their playoff run upon, they got just that with a 22-14 win at Gardiner on Friday. The River Hawks took 16-0 first half lead on two rushing touchdowns. However, the Tigers clawed away at that gap in the third quarter behind touchdown passes from Chase Burgess to Cody Dingwell and Evan Michaud. The Michaud touchdown, with a successful two-point conversion run by Burgess, brought Gardiner to within two points at the end of the third quarter. Skowhegan struggled in the game to convert on third down, going only one of nine. But in the fourth quarter they were able to extend their lead on a 16-yard touchdown run and held Gardiner at bay for the victory.

- A battle of Northern B teams was very much was one-sided game as Lawrence defeated region-leading Messalonskee on Friday by the score of 41-6. The Bulldogs used a punishing ground game, one that accounted for 344 yards during 51 running plays, to put a physical beating on the Eagles. This was aided by four Messalonskee turnovers, three of which came through interceptions, that stopped promising drives while the Bulldogs defense collected three sacks and did everything possible to put pressure on quarterback Tatum Doucette. In the first half 21 of their 27 points came via Messalonskee turnovers. Lawrence would get another 7 points after a Colby Nadeau interception. When the Eagles finally got on the scoreboard with a fourth quarter Garrett Card kickoff return for a touchdown, the Bulldogs would answer for the last score of the game on a Jayden Burnham touchdown. The victory also nudged Lawrence ahead of Messalonskee in the standings based on the first tiebreaker of head-to-head results.

- After a scoreless first half, Brewer scored three times in the second half and held Nokomis to a single touchdown to pick up a 19-8 victory and their first win of the season. This included a four-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter that put the game out of reach for the Warriors. It also helps shake things up in Northern Class C. The Nokomis loss, combined with Hermon’s 22-18 victory over Hampden Academy, drops the Warriors into fourth place behind Hermon with a gap of 14 Crabtree points. Brewer’s win does not change their sixth place ranking but it does narrow the gap to fifth place Hampden Academy to only 3.5 Crabtree points.

- After Poland’s 4-0 start, their losing skid extends to three games after Friday’s 39-7 loss to Fryeburg Academy. The Raiders win extends their unbeaten run to six straight and a continued hold on second place in Southern Class C by way of their September 30th tie-breaker victory over Cheverus.

- After a 1-3 start characterized by some very uncharacteristic play, the Winthrop/Monmouth/Hall-Dale Ramblers have reversed their fortunes on their recent run. They have now won three straight with their 21-0 victory against Lisbon that has elevated them from sixth place up to fourth. One of the more interesting observations (as was sent to us by Ramblers head coach Dave. St. Hilaire) is that three of those four wins have come via the road. In fact, those road wins are the continuation of a winning streak in regular season play as the away team which goes all the way back to October 19th, 2018. Their last regular season road loss was in a 14-12 defeat at Lisbon.

- It was a back-and-forth contest all evening long, but at the end of the night Mount Desert Island weathered the Morse charge and emerged with a 24-19 victory. This included a wild final minute in the first half where Morse’s Callin Gould scored on a 37-yard touchdown run with 52.9 seconds left, Mount Desert Island’s scored on a 51-yard pass from Jacob Shields to Jarron Biekert with 18.4 seconds left, and a 54-yard screen pass from Gould to Tyson Pinkham as time expired. That changed a 12-6 Trojan advantage to a 19-18 Shipbuilders lead. MDI proved themselves the better team on the night as they shut down Morse while taking the final lead on a Spencer Laurendeau 21-yard touchdown run.

- The sorting out of the 8 man large school South happened Friday night. Yarmouth’s win over Brunswick locked down first place for the Clippers. Greely’s 22-16 victory over Gray-New Gloucester and Mt. Ararat’s 43-6 victory against Lake Region set in motion the following finishes. Greely edged out Mt. Ararat by 4 Crabtree points for second place, while Mt. Ararat passed ahead of Brunswick by 4.08 Crabtree points for fourth place.

- Dexter overcame a 22-8 halftime deficit to score twice against Bucksport, the game-winner coming as time expired, to win on Friday by the score of 24-22. The finish was set in place as the two teams exchanged fourth-quarter interceptions, the latter pick by Kody Kimball set up the 15-play drive that culminated in goal-line score by Zakary Adams. While Dexter won, so did Houlton on Friday by the score of 52-28 over Ellsworth. As the two teams finished with a 4-3 record and were tied on Crabtree points, the first tiebreaker of head-to-head record went in favor of Houlton by way of their 52-38 victory back on September 15th.

- Old Orchard Beach and Orono finished the regular season unbeaten and in first place of their respective regions in the 8 man small school class. Old Orchard Beach defeated Mount View 64-13. It is noteworthy that after allowing zero points in the first five games of the season, the Seagulls have allowed 32 in the last two games. Orono picked up a 48-8 win against Mattanawcook Academy. This is the first unbeaten regular season for each team in a long time. Well outside of our range of information that only dates back to 2004. The two teams finished 1-2 in all of Maine 8 man in both points scored and points allowed. For like-comparisons of 8 man teams, the 2021 Morse Shipbuilders scored 350 points during their seven-game regular season. In 2022 the Dexter Tigers scored 370 points in their seven-game regular season. These Old Orchard Beach Seagulls have scored 458 points in their seven games, which averages out to a bit more than 65 points a game.

- Cheverus survived a late scare from Westbrook to walk away with a 27-22 road victory. Cheverus had a healthy 21-0 lead in the first quarter before Westbrook got to within striking distance in a span of nine seconds by way of a Giovanni Staples to Dimitri Lubin 21-yard touchdown pass and a 31-yard touchdown pass from Staples to Aiden Taylor following a Westbrook-recovered on-side kick. Cheverus added to their 21-16 lead when Gio St. Onge scored on a 1-yard run with a little over two minutes to go. Westbrook wouldn’t go away though as they quickly drove downfield and scored on a 1-yard Staples quarterback keeper just 55 seconds later to put the score at 27-22. Westbrook went for another on-side attempt, but this time it was Cheverus who recovered that all but ended the game and gave the Stags the victory.

- Two recent additions to the MPA ranks, both at slightly different ends of the spectrum both in class and geography, finished their seasons on a high note as they go into the playoffs. And after the trials and tribulations of each team it is noteworthy of how they got this far.

Camden Hills defeated Spruce Mountain 51-6 to finish the season 7-0. It is their first ever perfect regular season as well as their first ever first-place finish. Things were not always that rosy for the team from Rockport. They went 0-16 in their first two campaigns in 2008 and 2009 in the old Eastern Class B. Things looked promising after a 4-4 season and their first playoff game in 2010. The next five seasons were dark ones as they went 2-38 in moves from Eastern Class B, to Eastern Class C, and then finally to Northern Class D. They would suspend their varsity program in 2016, returning in 2017 for the developmental Class E. In the two-year run they went 9-6 and recorded a 22-0 playoff win over Old Orchard Beach. But when the class was dissolved in 2019 they went 2-6 playing down a class in Southern Class D and finished sixth out of eight teams (one of which was Dirigo, that forfeited the final seven games of their season). Since then they have been a fixture in the 8 man large school North where they went 4-2 in 2021 and 2-5 in 2022.

Sacopee Valley of South Hiram has not had it easy over their history. Entering into the MPA campaign in their inaugural season of 2009, they went 0-40 over their first five years. The losing streak ranks as their third longest such streak according to our records. After a somewhat respectable first year, in their second year they scored a state-low 7 points and forfeited their first game of the season. They would end up forfeiting another game in 2013, although in the season-finale they had their best game and came the closest to winning a game during a 12-6 loss to Telstar. At season’s end the varsity program was suspended, beginning a three-year stretch for the Hawks. They would return in 2017 for the developmental Class E, winning their first ever game in the program’s history during the season opener, a 25-0 victory against Traip Academy. They went 3-5 and qualified for the four-team playoff but lost to the eventual champions of Boothbay. The following season they went 1-7 and missed the Class E playoffs. When 8 man football was approved in 2019, Sacopee Valley was one of its inaugural members. The 4-3 record represents their first ever season with a record better than .500. It also ties their highest ever regular season finish of fourth place.

Some might think these are pointless figures, but for two programs that have gone through a lot of dark days these are some bright times this season.

- What is left to say about Leavitt’s 35-21 victory over Thornton Academy that has not been said already? We thought the hype for the Hornets game against Oxford Hills was big. This contest had just as much intrigue as the original out-of-class 2019 contest between Thornton Academy and Marshwood. Or maybe not. Maybe this was even bigger and better. Thornton Academy is Thornton Academy. The Golden Trojans are usually one of the best teams in all of Maine year in and year out. And Leavitt owned the state’s longest active winning streak and was one their four-game tour of higher-classed opponents. So when the Hornets went into halftime down 21-6 and on their worst performance in a long-long time (one has to go all the way back to 2016 to their last losses of more than two touchdowns), there was no reported panic. Instead they came out and turned in an inspiring performance. After being out-gained 221-99 in the first half, the Hornets flipped the script by out-gaining Thornton Academy 334-43 in the second half. Noah Carpenter scored twice and Colten Taylor scored Leavitt’s other touchdown during the third quarter. Carpenter added the icing on the cake with his fourth touchdown run of the game that gave Leavitt the 35-21 victory.

This game will be talked about for awhile. It might even invoke discussions of what-ifs from years gone by. It might inspire others to challenge higher-ranked opponents. It could dare others to dream big and not view the upper classes as the ceiling.

And for all that talk, next week is another game for these two. Leavitt will return to regional play on Friday as they host Cheverus. Thornton Academy will travel to New Hampshire with a game against the 7-0 Bedford Bulldogs.

- After a Saturday at a prior engagement, we came back to what was a late night getting the updates and Crabtree standings. So late that it carried over into this morning. That led us to the recheck a few of our numbers to make sure they were accurate. One of those was the 8 man large school North difference between Morse and Mount Desert Island. Last week we stated that a Mount Desert Island win should be enough to move them ahead of Morse. This was based on projections and ranges of the Crabtree numbers. Projections are far from perfect. They give you an idea if an overlap exists. But they are not perfect guesses. So when Mount Desert Island won it put them very close to second place, but not in second place. Why is that exactly? As we have previously mentioned Crabtree numbers are based on percentages. That’s a team’s winning percentage and the average winning percentage of all the opponents on their schedule. Morse finished with their opponents winning 26 of 49 games. Mount Desert Island opponents won 17 of 49 games. That’s a 9-win difference between the two. That might not mean a hill of beans in the locker room or on the practice field. But in the cold world of Crabtree calculations it means plenty. That percentage by Morse, combined with their 5-2 record, was enough to overcome Mount Desert Island’s number with their 6-1 record.

We saw the discussions and out-right disagreements on the rankings. It should be noted that every season there are at least 3 or 4 (if not more) situations where a team with fewer wins is ranked above teams with more wins. Sometimes there are no head-to-head games. Other times the higher ranked team has lost. In 2018, when the MPA used Heal points for football, it was 2-6 Belfast that finished ahead of 3-5 Mount Desert Island for the eighth and final playoff spot in Northern Class B. During the season finale the Trojans defeated Belfast 56-14.

And for that we go back to the point of Crabtree rankings. Because of the way the Maine Principals Associations conducts the alignments and sorting of regions and classes, what we have is the way things are. Because of the size of regions and that under creative scheduling there was a move away from pure round-robin schedules. Because of that pure wins and losses for ranking is not a reality. And just because Team A beat Team B, that is not reason enough for Team A to be ranked over Team B.

It’s not fair. But then again nobody said football (or life in general) is.

- As was mentioned earlier this morning, Valley has withdrawn from the 8 man small school playoffs. As playoffs in Maine under the MPA are on a “invitational” basis, this means that a team is not obligated to take part in the playoffs. They can voluntarily withdraw from them without being subject to suspensions from varsity play in the next season or two.

- On Monday we will conduct our second annual Crabtree Ranking Q & A session. This is designed to help provide information on the various playoff scenarios that you our audience might have.

- New Hampshire tracker
Bedford defeated Concord 46-7 on Friday. The 7-0 Bulldogs will host 4-3 Thornton Academy next Friday.
Bishop Guertin defeated Keene 34-14 on Friday. The 4-3 Cardinals will host 1-6 Goffstown next Saturday.
Dover defeated Timberlane 42-28 on Friday. The 4-2 Green Wave will host 2-5 Concord next Friday.
Merrimack lost to Nashua South 15-14 on Friday. The 3-4 Tomahawks will travel to 7-0 Portsmouth-Oyster River next Friday.
Portsmouth-Oyster River defeated Windham 34-14 on Saturday. The 7-0 ClipperCats will host 3-4 Merrimack next Friday.
Spaulding defeated Manchester Memorial 49-28 on Friday. The 3-4 Red Raiders will host 1-6 Nashua South next Friday.
Winnacunnet lost to Alvirne 28-0 on Friday. The 1-6 Warriors will travel to 3-4 Timberlane next Friday.

- Quote of the week #1
"We’re tough, we work hard in practice, and we grind it out. That’s the kind of team we are. We want teams to know that when they come to Friday night on Keyes field against the Lawrence Bulldogs, you can expect to get popped in the mouth."
Cam Dostie, Lawrence offensive lineman

- Quote of the week #2
"I told the kids after the game this is probably the biggest regular-season victory in the history of Leavitt football. For us to come here and finish off these four games that we’ve had with a win at Thornton, I don’t know if anybody is ever going to do that again. And to come back like that, it’s just an epic thing."
Mike Hathaway, Leavitt head coach

- Streak tracker
- There are 7 unbeaten teams in Maine, down from last week’s 9.
4 teams ended their winning streak of 4 or more games; Messalonskee (7), Kennebunk (6), Morse (5), and Thornton Academy (4).
The longest active winning streaks belong to Leavitt (18), Foxcroft Academy (15), Old Orchard Beach (14), Camden Hills (7), Oceanside (7), Orono (7), and Portland (7).
There are 8 winless teams in Maine, down from last week’s 10.
2 teams ended their losing streaks of 4 or more games; Old Town (8) and Brewer (7).
The longest active losing streaks belongs to Madison (15), Valley (13), Edward Little (13), Mount View (11), Lake Region (11), and Mt. Blue (11).

- First place teams after week seven
Class A North – Portland (no change)
Class A South – Thornton Academy (no change)
Class B North – Lawrence (change from last week)
Class B South – Kennebunk (no change)
Class C North – Oceanside (no change)
Class C South – Leavitt (no change)
Class D North – Foxcroft Academy (no change)
Class D South – Wells (no change)
8 Man Large School North – Camden Hills (no change)
8 Man Large School South – Yarmouth (no change)
8 Man Small School North – Orono (no change)
8 Man Small School South – Old Orchard Beach (no change)

- Five games of interest to us in week eight
Thornton Academy at Bedford
Gardiner at Cony
Wells at Fryeburg Academy
Medomak Valley at Oceanside
Dexter at Houlton

What are your thoughts on the weekend?